Even with a 4–3 liberal majority, the Wisconsin Supreme Court refused to throw Democrats a lifeline on redistricting—dealing a surprise blow to the party’s plan to flip the House in 2026.
On Wednesday, the court declined without comment to revisit the state’s congressional district boundaries, rejecting a high-profile plea from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The decision came despite months of buildup and mounting pressure from national Democrats to open the maps in time to give them a midterm advantage.
Now, with less than a year and a half to go before Election Day, the party’s dream of redrawing Republican-friendly lines has officially flatlined.
“It’s good that Wisconsin has fair maps at the state level, but we deserve them at the federal level as well,” Democratic Rep. Mark Pocan said after the decision. But that frustration is unlikely to sway the state’s top court, which already rejected a similar Democratic lawsuit in March 2024.
The decision was especially shocking given the court’s recent tilt leftward. Just this spring, liberal Judge Susan Crawford won a pivotal seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, replacing a conservative justice in what was the most expensive judicial race in the nation’s history. Many expected Democrats would soon test that new majority with another redistricting push.
They did—and they lost.
The rejected challenge specifically targeted two Republican-held House districts represented by Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden, both seen as top-tier targets in the DCCC’s list of 35 competitive seats. The Democrats hoped a new map would turn those districts blue. Instead, they’re stuck with the lines the state has used since 2022.
That leaves the party with an uphill battle in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2024—winning 49.7% of the vote to Kamala Harris’s 48.9%. And despite recent liberal wins in statewide races, like Crawford’s, the GOP continues to control key congressional seats under maps approved by the court just two years ago.
National Republicans celebrated the ruling as a vindication of voters’ will—and a warning for Democrats trying to manipulate the courts. “The bipartisan rejection of the radical Democrats’ desperate and politically motivated attempt to redraw the map in their favor offers a strong preview of how Wisconsin voters will reject the Democrats’ out-of-touch and radical agenda next year at the ballot box,” said NRCC spokesman Zach Bannon.
The ruling also underscores just how thin the Democrats’ midterm strategy has become. With Biden-era policies dragging their national favorability down and no presidential race on the ballot to boost turnout, the left was hoping favorable redistricting decisions might offset their disadvantage.
Now, that fallback plan is collapsing—and not just in Wisconsin. In state after state, redistricting lawsuits filed by Democrats are failing to gain traction, even in jurisdictions with friendly judges. The message seems clear: the courts aren’t going to do the party’s political heavy lifting.
Instead, Democrats will have to win seats the old-fashioned way—by persuading voters, not drawing new lines. That’s a tall order in battleground states like Wisconsin, where Republican policies and strong voter turnout have delivered consistent wins in federal races.
For now, the congressional map is locked—and it favors the GOP. Democrats were hoping for a court-ordered shake-up to boost their odds in 2026. They just got shut down by the very judges they helped elect.
