Republicans need to flip at least one US Senate seat this November to rip control of the body away from current Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). It’s been an open question whether they will be able to achieve that, especially with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (D-KY) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (D-SC) actively working to stay in the minority as they’d prefer. In Montana, Republican challenger Tim Sheehy has been trailing incumbent Sen. John Tester (D) the entire year. That suddenly changed after President Donald Trump traveled to Montana for a major rally and to endorse Sheehy against Tester.
You’d think that Tim Sheehy is everything that Republican voters in deep red Montana could want in a candidate. He’s a former Navy SEAL. He founded an aerial firefighting company and built it into one of the largest businesses of its kind in America. He started a cattle ranching and feeding operation for veterans. Yet for some reason, Obamacare and abortion supporter Jon Tester has been leading Sheehy by about 5 points in the race this entire year. It’s weird.
Then the Trump juggernaut rolled into Montana for a rally. Some conservative talking heads criticized this move because Trump is obviously going to defeat [insert name of current Democrat Party nominee here] for Montana’s three electoral votes.
Trump wasn’t worried about himself. He’s leading [insert name of current Democrat Party nominee here] by about 14 points in Montana. Donald Trump is concerned with recapturing the US Senate from the Democrats, so he won’t have Chuck Schumer throwing up roadblocks during his second term in the presidency.
It made a huge difference. Despite Democrats pouring more than $40 million into Tester’s campaign coffers (compared to the $14 million Sheehy has raised), Tester is now getting shellacked in the polls.
Sheehy is leading with an insurmountable 50.8%, compared to Tester’s 44.7%. About 3.8% of Montana voters say they’re undecided. Incidentally, the reason why Sheehy is trailing Tester so badly in fundraising is because Mitch McConnell is opposing his campaign. McConnell can turn the money spigot on or off for candidates, depending on whether they are pro-Trump. (See also: Kari Lake in the 2022 midterms.)
Following the Trump rally and endorsement, Montana voters say they trust Sheehy more than Tester on the economy, inflation, and abortion. The widest gap between the two is on immigration. 56.2% of Montana voters trust Sheehy’s immigration stance compared to 39% who favor Tester.
Note to every GOP political consultant in Montana: Immigration is Sheehy’s strongest issue and Tester’s weakest issue with the voters.
You’re probably wondering how a progressive liberal like Jon Tester could ever get elected in a red state like Montana in the first place. The answer, of course, is pothead Libertarian morons.
Tester won his first US Senate race by just 0.5% of the vote. The pothead Libertarian candidate in that race got 2.6% of the vote. In 2012, Tester won reelection with 3.7% of the vote. A different pothead Libertarian spoiled that election by drawing 6.6% of the vote.
People who are not pothead Libertarians refer to something like this as “a pattern” and learn from it. Instead of voting for another pothead, Montanans should support this Trump-endorsed candidate in November:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ttEis9LyqI
